Greece's relationship with the eurozone is poisoned - but for how long?

Bailout talks have generated new levels of brinkmansip that could leave a legacy of deep mistrust

The narrative of the Greek debt drama has been punctuated by deadlines, ultimatums, and showdowns for several months, in a risky play of brinkmanship that looks likely to reach a climax next week.

Ending the latest emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers early on Friday morning, EU governments called another session for next Wednesday instead of agreeing to grant Greece its second bailout in two years, a €130bn (£109bn) lifeline coupled with a debt swap pact with the banks and private creditors which would halve Athens's privately held debt to €100bn.

The constant manoeuvring, delays, playing for time, threats, and bluster have sapped confidence. The level of mistrust between Athens and its eurozone saviours has never been greater.

The likelihood is that Greece will get its bailout next week. But the erosion of trust, the perception of bad faith, and the dangerous levels of brinkmanship on both sides could yet result in miscalculation and failure, leaving the EU contemplating its first ever sovereign default and its dire implications.

The eurogroup meeting broke up with another ultimatum to Athens. For it to qualify for the bailout by next Wednesday, Greece has to meet several conditions: plug a €320m funding gap in this year's budget through yet more cuts, finalise the debt swap deal with private creditors, have parliament in Athens endorse the eurozone's bailout terms — entailing swingeing spending cuts, labour market reforms, cuts in the minimum wage, pension reductions — by Sunday.

And democracy cannot be allowed to get in the way. The signed commitment required of the current three-party caretaker coalition in Athens cannot be overturned by whoever wins elections expected in April, the eurozone insisted.

While in recent months, umpteen "political" deadlines for action and decisions have been set and missed, the one deadline that really matters and which cannot be manipulated by politicians on either side is 20 March, when Athens has to redeem more than €14bn of debt.

It does not have the money. Without the new bailout programme, Greece would have to default on its debt, unleashing the possibility of contagion to the eurozone's other vulnerable spots, notably Portugal. It is thought that Athens could acquire a week's grace period on the debt redemption, meaning that the latest deadline could be 27 March.

The pressure on the Greeks to deliver on their pledges is mounting as the demands on the Germans, the eurozone, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to sign off on the new bailout (agreed last October) also get louder.

But the bad-tempered standoff is also beginning to look like an exercise in futility. Privately, senior officials on the creditor side (the "troika" of European Commission, ECB, and IMF officials) concede that too much is being asked of the Greeks, that they won't be able to deliver, that the rescue plan won't work.

On the Greek side, it is difficult to find anyone who believes that the pain and sacrifice will be worth it and produce the necessary results. Formally the policy is to render Greece's debt levels sustainable by 2020, meaning a fall from 160% now to 120% of gross domestic product.

Already the figures don't add up. The expectation is that they never will.